"Sharon's Plan" by Dr. Hatem Bazian 7:14pm Tue Dec 18 '01 Sharon has decided to take out Arafat but he needs Palestinians to pull the trigger for no Israeli wants to have the blood of Arafat on his/her hand. You ask why? Arafat would be an even more powerful symbol for the Palestinians if killed by Israel. print article "Sharon's Plan" Commentary by Dr. Hatem Bazian Dec 18, 2001 - One main goal and analysis of Sharon's actions toward the Palestinians need to be understood and that being the desire to bring about an end to the Oslo peace process. How can this be done? The Oslo agreement is linked to the persona of Yasir Arafat and his ability to deliver the needed signatures on behalf of the Palestinians. Thus, the only real way to end Oslo agreement is by getting Arafat out of the picture i.e. Death of Arafat. However, it should not be Israeli hands that bring this forth; rather it should be an internal Palestinian event which brings this about. Just like Rabin's death was an internal Israeli affair so must be Arafat's death. Sharon has been working earnestly to create or fomenting internal tension within the Palestinian Authority in such a way that can bring about a decision from an inside group, which no longer views Arafat actions to be in their best interests, and undertake his assassination. Such an assassination would be the best case scenario for Sharon and the right wing for it brings about the following: 1. A split within the ranks of the Palestinian Authority. 2. A split among the various parts of Fatah. 3. An internal struggle for power within the PA and Fatah. 4. An internal struggle with opposition groups who would assert their influence. 5. Israel would begin to support some parts of the Palestinians against others as a means of creating Sharon's plan for autonomy. (Controlled Palestinian Civil war) 6. Attacks on Israelis will take place during this period of central power vacuum. 7. Sharon in a period of "greater security" threat will be able to have even greater free hand in implementing harsher measures which might include transfer of Palestinians. 8. Sharon has decided that it would be better for Israel to have the Islamic forces in charge of Palestinian affairs because he would have more sympathy in the West in fighting "Islamic Fundamentalist" terrorism. Also, Sharon would have the blessings of most Western counties in his campaign against "Islamic terrorism." 9. Sharon's Transfer plan would be put in motions which can only be accomplished under a condition of "managed" chaos. All along in history massive civilian movement across boarders are brought about once appropriate conditions are created and war is the best tool for such an undertaking. Sharon and his kitchen cabinet ministers are ideologically committed to transfer ((although 68% of Israelis support it if the transfer does not lead to Israel suffering internationally i.e. the West might not have the stomach to see thousands of people displaced) and if conditions on the ground makes it feasible then it will be pursued. The beauty in this for Israel and Sharon is they will blame Arafat for not taking the Camp David deal and thus being responsible for all what is/will take place. We most certainly will hear some Israelis with the distinct N.Y. English accent remained all of us of the often used cruel statement that the "Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." Never mind you that the current Israeli prime minister stand charged with War crimes but in this new world order "might makes right" and the Palestinians have been found to be "wrong" because they are weak. (All the above ideas are based on observations without commenting on possible Palestinian responses to possible events) Sharon has decided to take out Arafat but he needs Palestinians to pull the trigger for no Israeli wants to have the blood of Arafat on his/her hand. You ask why? Arafat would be an even more powerful symbol for the Palestinians if killed by Israel. On the day after his death the number of Israelis who would lose their lives would be in the hundreds: No Israeli leader can last a day if this takes place for he would be blamed for the loss of Israeli life. Sharon might be the kind of person who is ready to take this kind of risk but others around him would council him to use one of the Palestinian collaborators to do the dirty job for Israel, which in either case would be seen as Palestinian-Palestinian killing. It is my belief that Arafat's days are numbered and the search is on for a replacement who can give Israel more than what he was ready to give and do. I pray for the best but I am afraid that some horrific days are ahead for the Palestinians. ------------ About the author: Dr. Hatem Bazian is a native Palestinian who immigrated to the US in pursuit of higher education. He currently teaches at UC-Berkeley where he graduated with a Ph.D. in Islamic studies, specializing in Islamic Law and the history of Muslims in Jerusalem. Dr. Bazian has also authored numerous articles on various aspects of the Middle East. www.iap.org/ add your comments Source file

impending transfer by db 12:28pm Tue Jan 29 '02 print comment this impending "transfer" of arabs from palestine that the author forecasts and fears is not a specifically israeli idea: since 1948 the age-old jewish coummunities of morocco, egypt, jordan, iraq and other arab countries have been expelled there's a striking and disturbing symmetry to this conflict add your comments